Monthly Archives: September 2011

Futures and Starvation

Futures have existed for over two millenia and people on the losing end have been unhappy almost as long.  They continue to exist at least partially because commodity producers, e.g., farmers, want to know before they plant a crop that … Continue reading

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Beyond the Nash Equilibrium

My rule of thumb for introducing someone and/or a post they’ve written is, “Is this information new to me or organized/explained in a way that is new to me.”  I know about a Nash Equilibrium in which each player is … Continue reading

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Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is “a veteran trader, a distinguished professor at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute and the author of The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable“. And someone hard to categorize. I find him worth reading to … Continue reading

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Shadow Banking Reworked in China

“Shadow banking” is a term coined by Paul McCulley,recently retired from PIMCO.  In the United States, mortgages, auto loans, credit card accounts, and other debt/lending was bundled into Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) and/or Asset Backed Securities (ABS), forms of bonds.  … Continue reading

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How to Avoid Fear-Driven Investing?

The first rule of investing, according to Richard Russell is, “First, lose no money.” The second rule is, “See Rule 1”. Strictly speaking, this is only possible in insured savings accounts that pay more than inflation. In light of this, … Continue reading

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P2P Lending

China’s people and corporations are busily disintermediating their banks. China’s brave new world of P2P credit details the practice, called peer to peer (P2P) lending. It is an interesting development that I have not been aware of. Googling “P2P lending” … Continue reading

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RTFP – Read The Fine Print

And get the latest version. Unwitting Angels: When Fund Investors Become Bankers details a “financial innovation” you may be a part of in your municipal bond funds. Recent history at the national level is not encouraging. In the Latin American … Continue reading

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When Happy Days are Here Again

So what does the Great Depression suggest will be good investments when we come out of the Great Recession?  First, it will take 3-4 years to break even.  And cheap vices are a reasonable play.  Read 1930s Lessons: Brother, Can … Continue reading

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Jack Bogle on The New Normal and Apocolypse When?

Jack Bogle founded the Vanguard Group and brought index investing into the mainstream and to Middle America.  He has a good, though not perfect record, on predicting the markets.  Jason Zweig, interviews him in Why a Legendary Market Skeptic Is … Continue reading

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US Debt Crisis

Noise from Washington, especially from elected officials, has more to do with ideology than reality. Howard Gold has an article about 3 big myths about the U.S. debt crisis. It isn’t happy, but it is accurate. Politicians voted for every … Continue reading

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